Shortly after a coup d’état shook the African nation of Niger in July, Torchlight AI, a Florida-based behavior analytics firm, conducted metadata analysis that revealed intriguing details. According to their findings, an individual with ties to the Russian military managed to traverse Niger’s closed borders, reaching its capital, Niamey, and subsequently visiting various military sites.
A week prior to this, Torchlight AI detected the movements of two Russians affiliated with the Wagner mercenary group. They had journeyed from Russia and Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine to Mali, a nation under the control of a junta government aligned with the one now governing Niger.
In the weeks leading up to the coup that occurred in Gabon on August 30, the company monitored a local individual who frequently moved between the Russian embassy and various government and military installations in Gabon.
This analysis, exclusively shared with Defense One, raises questions regarding the activities of Russian agents in politically unstable African countries. It also underscores the potential of AI in deciphering patterns from commercial datasets.
Torchlight AI relies on behavior-based intelligence, utilizing various commercial datasets related to internet-of-things devices to detect unusual patterns around specific locations. With over 16,000 behavior models, the company can apply them to places rather than individuals. This approach differs from tracking a single person across the globe. Instead, the company examines signals, signatures, or digital indicators in places like Niger, Mali, or Gabon and then traces them back to individuals originating from Russia or other locations.
Importantly, Torchlight AI emphasizes that all the data they use is commercially available and compliant with U.S. privacy laws, with no focus on the United States itself. Their intelligence aims to assist military and civilian leaders in gaining a better understanding of events in regions of interest.
Torchlight AI CEO James Bourie explained, “We know what the digital signatures of Wagner look like. We know ISIS. We know the Russian military, Chinese, you name it. We built these behavioral models so we can query our data and see it on the ground.”
The tracking tools employed by Torchlight AI identified an individual who frequently visited military installations in eastern Russia. This individual traveled to Togo and then entered Niger on July 29, just three days after President Mohamed Bazoum was ousted in the coup. The new government subsequently revoked an agreement with France, leading to the departure of over 1,000 French troops. While the U.S. has not yet altered its force posture in Niger, where it operates drone bases for counter-terrorism missions, the State Department evacuated its embassy.
In the case of Mali, Torchlight AI detected the movements of two individuals associated with the Wagner mercenary group around the time of the Niger coup. One of them departed from Moscow’s main airport on July 16, heading to the Al Jufra Airbase in Libya, reportedly used as a Wagner staging base. They then arrived at Bamako International Airport, another Wagner-linked facility, on August 5, traveling through Mopti International Airport in Mali on the same day, as well as on August 15. Mali, which has its own military junta following a coup in 2020, provided support to the recent coup in Niger.
After the coup in Gabon, Torchlight AI began tracking an individual stationed at a police/military installation in Libreville, Gabon. On July 11, this person visited the Russian embassy in Libreville and subsequently made stops at the upper house of parliament and the Treasury. On July 25, they went to the Presidential Palace, home to the Republic Guard, whose leader led the coup, as noted in Torchlight AI’s analysis.
The coup in Niger has significant implications for U.S. counter-terrorism operations in Africa. Kremlin-backed actors utilized social media platforms like Telegram to disseminate disinformation about the coup shortly after its occurrence. However, the U.S. government has not publicly asserted Russian involvement in the recent coup activities in Africa.
While Torchlight’s analysis does not definitively prove direct involvement of the Russian military, it does highlight noteworthy interactions between Russians and key African government officials in close proximity to each coup event.
*The views and opinions expressed on this website are solely those of the original authors and contributors. These views and opinions do not necessarily represent those of Spotter Up Magazine, the administrative staff, and/or any/all contributors to this site.
SOURCE
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/09/russian-military-actors-went-niger-mali-close-coup-dates-data-shows/390055/